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Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd: Discounted Cash Flow (Dcf) Valuation1
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July2017, Aviral Gupta, a financial analyst who worked for an investment banking firm based in NewDelhi, India, was assigned the task of conducting a buy-side valuation of an Indian firm that specialized inthe hair oil business. The analyst’s firmhad already invested in the mobile Internet, information technology, health care, financial technology, and e-commerce sectors, and it now wanted to diversity portfolio into the personal care segment of the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. The FMCG sector wasthe fourth-largest sector in the Indian economy, and sales in this sector were driven largely by growing consumer awareness, availabilityof products, and thechanging lifestyles of consumers. Within this sector,household and personal care products accounted for 50 per cent of sales.2The analyst foundthat within the personal care segment, the haircare business in India enjoyed a marketshare of 8per cent—with 50 per cent ofthis attributable to hair oil alone.
The hair oil segment had grownat acompounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9per cent between 2011 and 2016.3Going forward, itwas expected to have ahigh growth potential,4driven largely by hair oil’s perceived benefits of strengthening and nourishing hair—benefits that led to faster hair growth and reduced hair fall. Asconsumers’lives became more stressful, theywere rediscovering the tradition of hair massage using hairoil. The introduction of various natural and nutrition-based products further built on this trend and attracted a consumer focus on value-added hair oils. 5 Gupta also found anuntapped rural market for branded products. Inaddition to studying the market for his products, he had conducted someresearch on theexisting competition. Gupta now had an agenda: identifya company in the hair care industry within the FMCG sector, value it using the discounted cash flow (DCF) technique, anddetermine whether the company would be a good fit for his company’s investment plan.
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